Excitement for this event had built up not because it promised great results but because it had an intoxicating mix of hope and fear. To be honest the fear was mostly one-sided; Manchester United in five games had one win and three losses. The under-pressure Manchester United manager, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer had been tinkering with his tactics in an effort to save his job. Maybe this was the day he would turn things around? By the 7th minute of the game, Manchester United was one goal down through an own goal. Just as the first half was approaching its end, the title holders Manchester City scored, solidifying their lead. For a United fan, it was a devastating sight.
I was among millions of fans around the world who were infuriated with what they had just watched. I lacked the mental fortitude to finish the game and chose to take my frustrations out in a fan forum. I feel sorry for those who had to read my long rants about tactics, players, and of course the manager of the team Ole Gunnar Solskjær (OGS).
The morning after the Manchester derby, I had time to torture myself with ideas and questions. Was it that Ole could not see that he was incompetent? Was my understanding of football terrible that I couldn’t see what he was trying to do at the football club? Was this an example of the Dunning-Kruger effect?
What is the Dunning-Kruger effect?
A simplified definition of the Dunning-Kruger effect would be that those with the least ability are often the most likely to overrate their skills. The absence of enough knowledge reduces the ability to assess ourselves truthfully and we display illusory superiority. So is OGS incompetent to the degree that he can’t see how bad he is? Or I’m I incompetent in football matters and therefore overestimating my football analytical skills?
Dunning and Kruger first described the effect in 1999. But a more recent 2008 study conducted by Dunning and Kruger and several other researchers is what caught my interest. They tested 58 pairs of college students participating in a debate tournament. After every debate, the participants were expected to fill a questionnaire on how well they thought they had performed.
Participants who were in the bottom 25% had a very inaccurate self-perception of their performance. With a win rate of 22% (approximately one win in five games), they thought they had won 59% of the games.
Who is the most vulnerable to this delusion?
We should realize that this phenomenon is evident in all of us. Not recognizing our ignorance is part of our human nature. We are all vulnerable to this delusion and the problem is we can identify it in other people and we don’t see it in ourselves.
Jesus Christ recognized this flaw and touched on it when He asked, “Why do you look at the speck of sawdust in your brother’s eye and pay no attention to the plank in your own eye?”
How can we avoid it?
1. Feedback
Feedback is one of the best ways to assess our performance. Asking for feedback is not enough because we must consider what has been said and make necessary changes. We can get a good pool of competent people around us who can act as our accountability partners. Is it your Bible study members keeping you in check? Is it an online community of professionals you’ve built through networking?
2. Listen
Have you heard about naïve realism? Your worldview may seem so compelling or so self-evident but that does not mean that it is true. Our brains are busy cooking scenarios and ideas so our conclusions may seem accurate when they are not. So how can we avoid entertaining the wrong view of ourselves? Attentively listen to others to pick the gaps in our thinking.
Matthew 7:5
5 You hypocrite, first take the plank out of your own eye, and then you will see clearly to remove the speck from your brother’s eye.
Jesus Christ made the case that we first need to deal with our own sin so that we can have spiritual insight to help others. He understood that we need an accountability partner to convict us when we are wrong and He left the Holy Spirit to guide us unto all Truth.
It’s us to choose if we will avoid incompetence like a drug dealer who knows incompetence will lead to a bullet in his head and bodies of his loved ones all over the streets or like a man who has the fear of God in him and works knowing that he will face God one day.
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